FED uçot dərəcəsini artıracaqlarının açıq və sərt mesajını verəcək – Ekspert danışır

Bu gün dünya birjaları və maliyyə-valyuta bazarları üçün çox önəmli gündür. İki saat öncə Yaponiya Mərkəzi Bankının qərarı açıqlandı: Mənfi uçot dərəcəsini saxladılar (-0,1%), ölkə üzrə pis aktivlərin alınması proqramını da olduğu kimi saxlayırlar, ildə 780 mlrd. dollarlıq (80 trilyon yen) şirkət və bankların pis aktivlərini alaraq, bazarı canlı tutacaqlar, likvidliyi artıracaqlar. İstədikləri odur ki, illik inflyasiya, heç olmasa, 2% olsun – bu ona görə lazımdır ki, Yaponiyaya defilyasiya (qiymətlərin enməsi) ciddi ziyan vurur. Bu qərardan sonra Uzaq Şərq bazarlarında canlanma oldu.

Günün əsas qərarı isə Bakı vaxtı ilə 23:00-da ABŞ-dan gələcək. Bu gün onlarda FED (Federal Rezerv Sistemi – ABŞ-ın Mərkəzi Bank funksiyasını icra edən özəl qurumu) toplantısıdır. Toplantıdan sonra rəsmi açıqlama və FED rəhbəri Janet Yellenin mətbuat konfransı olacaq. Gözləntim odur ki, bu dəfə FED faiz artırmayacaq, faizin artırılması ehtimalı çox aşağıdır, təqribən, 20%-dir, amma, Yellen xanın həm rəsmi açıqlamada, həm də mətbuat konfransında bu il uçot dərəcəsini artıracaqlarının açıq və sərt mesajını verəcək. Bu mesajın özü belə birjalarda və maliyyə bazarlarında dalğalanmalar yaradacaq, dollar indeksinin artımını təmin edəcək, yəni, dollar dünyada bahalaşmağa başlayacaq.

Bütün bunların Azərbaycana birbaşa təsiri yoxdur, çünki, zatən ölkədə iqtisadiyyat, birjalar, maliyyə bazarı yoxdur, primitiv “durba” modelidir, amma dolayı təsiri olacaq: 1) Dolların bahalaşması bütün valyutalara təsir edəcək, bizlə qonşu olan ölkələrin də milli valyutaları zəifləyəcək, bu da manata təzyiqi artıracaq, 2) Dollar bahalaşdıqca, xammal qiymətləri düşəcək, yəni, neftin ucuzlaşması, ya da, daha da bahalaşmaması baş verəcək. Başqa sözlə, bu gün Cənnət (Yellen) xanımın verdiyi qərar manata da təsirsiz ötüşməyəcək, manatın addım-addım dəyərdən düşməsi davam edəcək…

 

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