Thomas de Waal: Azərbaycanda təlatüm qaçılmaz ola bilər

Tanınmış Britaniya politoloqu Thomas de Waal-ın Azərbaycanın müstəqilliyinin 25-ci ildönümünə həsr etdiyi geniş təhlili məqaləsi Carnegie Avropa Fondunun saytında dərc olunub.

Bu məqalədə “Qara Bağ” kitabının müəllifi əsrin dörddə biri qədər zamanda Azərbaycanın keçdiyi yola, onun indiki siyasi-ictimai-iqtisadi durumuna nəzər yetirir və proqnozlarını bölüşür.

Politoloq yazır ki, Azərbaycan cəmiyyəti hakimiyyətin düşündüyündən daha sürətlə dəyişir.

Azərbaycan elitası özündə rəhmdillik tapıb hakimiyyətdə olanlarla hakimiyyət altında olanlar arasında böyük uçurumun üstündən körpü ata bilməsə, siyasi təlatümlə üzləşəcəyi demək olar qaçılmazdır

Müəllifin fikrincə, bəlkə elə bu səbəbdən də rəsmi Bakı tamamilə yeni tarixi fazaya qədəm qoyulduğunu tam gerçəkliyi ilə hiss edə bilmir.

Thomas de Waal yazır ki, Azərbaycan iqtisadiyyatını çiçəkləndirən, dövlətçiliyini möhkəmləndirən və beynəlxalq imicini yüksəldən neft bumu…başa çatıb.

Politolqun fikrincə, hazırda hakimiyyəti düşündürən sual siyasi liberallaşdırma aparmadan iqtisadi liberallaşdırmanın mümkün olub-olmayacağıdır, çünki hakimiyyət siyasi dəyişikliyi istəmir.

Hakimiyyət rəhmdillik etməsə…

De Waal bu qənaətə gəlir ki, əgər Azərbaycan elitası özündə rəhmdillik tapıb hakimiyyətdə olanlarla hakimiyyət altında olanlar arasında böyük uçurumun üstündən körpü ata bilməsə, siyasi təlatümlə üzləşəcəyi demək olar qaçılmazdır.

Dəyişməz hakimiyyət elitası

Dəyişməz hakimiyyət elitası

Azərbaycanın ən yeni tarixini bir neçə şərti dövrə bölən politoloq yazır ki, Azərbaycanın iqtisadi gəlhagəl baxımından ən güclü, lakin demokratiya baxımından ən zəif dövrü İlham Əliyevin prezidentliyinə təsadüf edir.

Politoloq yazır ki, Azərbaycan SSRİ-nin dağıldığı 1991-ci ildən bəri heç vaxt bu qədər avtoritar olmayıb.

De Waal qeyd edir ki, İlham Əliyevin üçüncü prezidentliyi ilə, əslində ölkənin Mərkəzi Asiyanın siyasi modelinə keçməsi başlanıb və sentyabrın 26-da keçirləcək referendum onun hakimiyyətini demək olar, sonsuz edəcək.

Yoxsulluq qayıdıb gəlib

Neft bumuna gəlincə isə Azərbaycan 2005, 2006, 2007-ci ildə dünyanın ən artımlı iqtisadiyyatlarından birinə çevrilsə də, korrupsiya baş alıb gedib, neft gəlirləri mühümlüyü şübhə doğuran nəhəng layihələrə xərclənib, qeyri-neft sahəsi demək olar inkişaf etdirilməyib.

Məqalədə deyilir ki, Azərbaycan 2013-cü ildə yoxsulluğun 2000-ci illərdə olduğu 50 faizdən 5 faizə endirildiyini elan etmişdi, lakin son iki ilin ərzində hər şey başlanğıcına qayıdıb.

Yoxsulluq qayıdıb gəlib

Yoxsulluq qayıdıb gəlib

Azərbaycan əhalinin həyat səviyyəsi baxımından, nə nefti, nə də qazı olmayan qonşularından çox da irəli gedə bilməyib.

Dünya Bankının hesablamasına görə Azərbaycanın əmək qüvvəsinin 40 faizi subsidiyalı kənd təsərrüfatı ilə məşğuldur. Əhalinin yalnız 12 faizi ayda 400 dollardan artıq qazandığını bəyan edib. 48 faiz əhali isə ərzaq və geyim-keçim ala bilməyəcək dərəcədə yoxsuldur.

Məqalədə deyilir ki, son bir neçə ildə milli valyuta dəyərdən düşüb, neft fondunun pulları sürətlə tükənməyə başlayıb.

Müəllif yazır ki, hakimiyyət hazırda ümidini qaza və onun gətirəcəyi gəlirə bağlayıb, lakin reallıqda bu gözləntilər xeyli şişirdilib.

Azərbaycan neftinin ehtiyatları Rusiya və Qazaxıstanın ehtiyatları ilə müqayisədə cüzidirsə, qaz ehtiyatları İran və Türkmənistanın ehtiyatlarının yanında əhəmiyyətsizdir.

Rusiya Avropanın qaz tələbatının 30 faizini ödəyirsə, Azərbaycandan nəql olunacaq qaz Avropa tələbatının yalnız 1, 5 faizini təşkil edəcək.

Kövrək siyasi sistem

Ölkənin siyasi sisteminə gəlincə isə, De Waal bu qənaətdədir ki, İlham Əliyev hakim elita üçün birləşdirici faktor olsa da, qüdrətli atası qədər güclü lider deyildir. Üstəlik Heydər Əliyevdən sonra elitanın başqa qolları da hədsiz sərvət toplayaraq güclənib. Bu səbədən də Ramiz Mehdiyev, Ramil Usubov, Kəmaləddin Heydərov, Artur Rəsizadə, Ziya Məmmədov kimi fiqurlar uzun müddətdir ki, oz postlarında dəyişməz olaraq qalırlar.

Azərbaycan cəmiyyəti hakimiyyətin hiss etdiyindən daha sürətlə dəyişir

De Waal-ın fikrincə bu elə kövrək bir hakimiyyət konsensusudur ki, hətta 2003-cü ildə hakimiyyətin İlham Əliyevə ötürülməsi üçün qısa müddət postunu boşaldan Rəsizadə dərhal da öz postuna qayıdıb.

Bununla belə iqtisadi resessiya elitanı da zəiflədir.

Politoloq bildirir ki, öz tarixində həm də avtoritarlıq, həm də pluralizm təcrübəsi olan Azərbaycanın əhalisi 10 milyon nəfərə yaxınlaşıb. Əhalinin tərkibi də dəyişib. İndi bu əhali 25 il bundan əvvəl olduğundan daha azərbaycandilli, daha dindardır. Lakin bütün basqılara baxmayaraq ölkənin siyasi müxalifəti hələ də sağdır.

Belə olduğu şəraitdə, Azərbaycan neft gəlhagəlinin bitməsinin ardınca həqiqi iqtisadi islahatlara başlamalıdır. Lakin politloqun firkrincə bunu aşağılardan gələn siyasətə meydan açmadan icra etmək çətin ki, mümkün olsun.

De Waal məqaləni başladığı notla da başa çatdırır: Azərbaycan cəmiyyəti hakimiyyətin hiss etdiyindən daha sürətlə dəyişir.(azadliq.org)

 

 

Bastainfo.com



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